Thursday, June 02, 2005

Box Office Numbers

This past Friday, I played amateur prognosticator on the 2nd week box office numbers for ROTS. Unfortunately, I didn't look carefully enough at the weekly windows the movie industry uses, so my numbers are a bit off from those used by the industry.

Using a Monday (5/23) to Sunday (5/29) window, I predicted a $100 million second week. Box Office Mojo has the official box office count for that period as $97,199,011. So, I was pretty close for that window.

For future reference, the industry's weekly window appears to be Friday through Thursday, which makes sense considering most films open on Fridays.

Using the industry window, and with Wednesday and Thursday numbers not included, ROTS's 2nd week stands at $74,453,694. If Wed. and Thurs. figures are consistent with the Tues. figures, ROTS should do another $9 million or so, and push the 2nd week total to around $83 million. This would also push the total to about $283 million, with the $300 million barrier most likely falling either Saturday or early Sunday.

Another box office site, Box Office Report, which was nearly dead-on with its weekend forecast for ROTS last week, is forecasting a $26 million weekend (6/3-6/5). If this holds true, ROTS will definitely exceed the $300 million barrier, and will do so ahead of the record holder Shrek 2, which broke the $300 million barrier on the 18th day of release. The question seems to be whether ROTS will be one day or two days ahead of that pace.

The additional question (at least for me): Does ROTS have the momentum to sink the "Titantic"? IMO, the keys to ROTS breaking the $600 million barrier has to do with a relatively weak summer lineup (which appears quite weak) and a big 4th of July push. Since the 4th is on a Monday, if Fox and Lucas are smart, a big advertising blitz around that holiday might help generate that additional push and a gathering of new momentum to blow the "Titantic" out of the water. (*shamelessly bad puns inserted for loyal reader*)

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